Polybot

Paper trading · no real orders
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Paper results simulated maker fills, held to resolution

Window
Cumulative paper profit by variantUS dollars, after each resolved market
Variantseach bids below the model's fair value; profit counts resolved markets only
Fill quality by part of windowedge = payout minus price paid
Recent paper fillsnewest first, times in UTC
Recent marketsnewest first, times in UTC; profit per variant in US dollars

Research 7 days of resolved markets to 5 Nov 2026

What the history showed
  • Resolution rule: Up wins when the 60-second average price at the end of the window is at or above the 60-second average just before it opens. It matched 98.3–98.5% of 10,628 outcomes.
  • Fees: takers pay about 1.75¢ per share at a 50¢ price; makers pay nothing. The formula is read from the market's fee fields and not yet checked against a real fill.
  • Who wins: after estimated fees the steady winners are makers. Most taker-heavy bots give their profit back in fees.
  • No slow taker edge: prices are well calibrated against the model; a simulated taker only profits if it reacts within about 2 seconds.
  • No contrarian edge: buying the cheap side on BTC 15m earned +0.5¢ ± 0.9¢ per share over 28 days.
Top wallets after estimated feesUS dollars over 7 days